Indus Water Treaty Suspended After Pahalgam Terror Attack: What it means for the Jhelum, Ravi, and Beyond

After a massive terror attack in Pahalgam, the Indian government has taken steps to abeyance the Indus Water Treaty of 1960. This treaty allows over 70% of the water from Western rivers like the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab to flow into Pakistan, while the government decided to halt flow of these rivers into Pakistan with immediate effect. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Mistri officially declared the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty on April 23. The decision is being portrayed by the government as a justified and measured response to an act of terrorism attributed to Pakistan.

What is the Indus Water Treaty?

On September 19, 1960, India and Pakistan signed a treaty in Karachi negotiated by the World Bank to use the water available in the Indus River and its tributaries. It was signed by the then Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and the President of Pakistan, Ayub Khan. In this negotiation, both sides decided that India had control over three Eastern Rivers, the Beas, Ravi and Sutlej. Pakistan controls the western rivers, such as the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

The Indus Water Treaty consists of the six major rivers of the Indus basin divided into two different geographical areas, including three of them known as western rivers, such as the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab, while another three are classified as eastern rivers, including the Sutlej, the Beas and the Ravi.

Indus River Waters: Who Uses What?

These rivers play a prominent role in the irrigation system, especially in the Punjab and Sindh provinces of Pakistan. While the treaty gives control to Pakistan over 70% of the water which they carried, while India received only 30% of the water. The Western rivers have a total mean annual flow of 99 billion cubic metres of water, which is given to Pakistan.

According to reports, India is permitted to utilise a limited amount of water from the western rivers for irrigation; however, it is allowed to use unlimited quantities of water for purposes such as power generation, navigation, the floating of property, and fish culture, among others. This treaty has never been on hold since the 1960s, even during several conflicts and wars between India and Pakistan, only to maintain a good-will friendship and cooperation. But it’s now suspended after the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Kashmir.

Consequences of the Indus Water Treaty suspension

After this unplanned decision, Pakistan could face multiple serious consequences. Pakistan could face significant water shortages, particularly during the dry season when river flow is naturally low, as a downstream nation heavily dependent on the Indus River system. Experts warn that if India starts controlling water flow using its existing and future infrastructure, it could critically reduce Pakistan’s access to essential irrigation and drinking water.

The resulting drought would severely impact agriculture, leading to food insecurity and economic instability. Power generation from hydroelectric projects could also decline, causing energy shortages. Meanwhile, India could benefit by gaining greater control over its share of river waters, helping to boost irrigation for Indian farmers, expand hydroelectric power generation, and strengthen water security in its northern states. However, the decision could also escalate tensions, with risks to regional stability.